Namibia: Independent Evaluation of Namibia’s Second National Employment Policy (2013/14 – 2016/17)

1. Introduction & rationale for evaluation

Namibia at independence in 1990 and today is an economy characterized by severe developmental challenges namely; poverty, unemployment and inequality. This was and is reflected in the distribution of wealth as well as access to services and resources. The country’s economy has grown by an average of 4.5 percent per year, mainly based on the substantial expansion of its extractive industries. Agriculture contributes only 6.7% although it accounts for a large share of employment in the country. With mining, the opposite pattern holds in that the sector’s share of employment is noticeably lower than its GDP contribution. The economy has increasingly diversified primarily by growing exports in fish and beef and a boom in the tourism (13.8% of GDP in 2017 and 98,000 jobs) and services sectors. Poverty rates have declined significantly since the 1990s and the country scores highly in international governance and democracy-related indexes.^[1]

Since 2009 Namibia has been classified as an Upper-Middle Income Country (UMIC) by the World Bank due to significant growth in per-capita income. The economic growth over the years, has masked significant pockets of poverty, unemployment and staggering inequalities in Namibia. The country has one of the most unequal distributions of wealth in the world with a national Gini-coefficient index of 0.572 (NDP 5), which particularly manifests itself in stark rural/urban and inter-regional divides. Poverty rates, despite the improvements, remain high compared to per capita wealth (27 percent in rural areas and 9.6 percent in urban).

Namibia continues to experience very high levels of unemployment. The broad unemployment rate in 2016 stood at 34% while the strict unemployment rate stood at 23.4%. Disaggregation by sex shows that unemployment among women (at 38.3%) was significantly higher than among men (at 29.8%). The increase in unemployment in 2016 was driven by both growth in the labour force, as well as by job losses in the economy, for example in the construction sector.

Namibia’s unemployment problem is long term in nature. More worrying is the level of youth unemployment which is at 43.4 percent, and the number of youths Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) is at 34.5 percent. These rates, indicate that a large percentage of the population is unproductive, limiting the ability of Namibia to reap the benefits of a potential demographic dividend in the future.

In 2016, almost half of all workers were employed in private companies (48.5%), followed by employment in private households/by private individuals (28.1%), the government (18.2%) and state-owned enterprises (5.3%). The economic growth fostered mainly by the mining industry has not led to the development of a manufacturing sector nor significant job creation. The country still largely imports most of its basic consumables, and businesses across all sectors are dominated by South African franchises and multi-national enterprises (MNEs). Between 1997 and 2008, when in fact economic performance improved, the formal sector lost nearly 70,000 jobs, at a time an estimated 240,000-300,000 new job seekers entered the labour market. 65% of the employed population were in informal employment in 2016, the majority of which being women.

There is clear evidence of a growing enclave economy characterized by the co-existence of two radically distinct parts, a modern or formal segment employing a small proportion of the economically active and a growing informal economy employing the bulk of the economically active working-poor. The National Policy on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises in Namibia (2016-2021) aim to foster sustainable employment creation and income generation through training; improved access to finance; technology and markets; enhanced capacity to innovate and improved entrepreneurial skills.

Since independence the government of the Republic of Namibia has put in place several initiatives to create employment. A national employment policy (NEP) was first adopted in 1997 but implementation was hampered by its weak linkages to national development planning and lack of a clear implementation strategy.

In 2013, the Government of Namibia approved the country’s Second National Employment Policy (NEP), 2013/14 – 2016/17. The NEP was developed through broad-based consultations across national constituents, and it constitutes a technically solid and well-reasoned policy document. The NEP’s main goal was to “promote full, productive, decent and freely chosen employment which will eradicate poverty and reduce income inequality”.

Doing so, it aimed to implement the employment propositions of the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP4), by focussing on nine priority areas and strategies, namely:

1. Pro-employment macroeconomic policies

2. Agriculture-led industrialisation

3. Public works: housing and sanitation and other infrastructure

4. Informal Economy and SMEs

5. Renewable Energy

6. Tourism

7. Skills Development

8. Improved Social Protection

9. Labour administration and labour standards

In order to achieve this, a policy implementation framework was established to ensure the effectiveness of the policy. The implementation plan acknowledged the need for a structured and coordinated approach across all relevant players, especially across government. It particularly highlighted that the NEP’s main custodian, the Ministry of Labour, Industrial Relations and Employment Creation (MLIREC), cannot single-handedly take over the employment creation responsibilities of the various sectoral and line ministries/organisation. This in turn, would require extensive coordination and the NEP included an Institutional Coordination Framework, an important element of which was the creation of an ‘employment coordination body’, ideally in the form of an Employment Creation Commission. The NEP equally included dedicated and targeted Implementation and Monitoring and Evaluation Plans across all NEP priority areas.

Despite this, there appears to be a strong sense that, by end of 2017, overall implementation of the NEP has been very limited and incomplete. There appears to be general agreement among tripartite members of the coordination committee that many of the stipulated interventions and targets have not been achieved, regardless of a seemingly sound policy setup.

For this reason, it has been agreed with the Ministry of Labour, Industrial Relations and Employment Creation (MLIREC), social partners and the ILO that the Second Namibian National Employment Policy and its implementation should be subjected to an independent evaluation, with a view to generate lessons learned and key recommendations as to ensuring impact and effectiveness of any successive employment policies or programmes in the country.

2. Purpose, scope and clients of the evaluation

Purpose:

The independent evaluation serves two main purposes:

i. To independently assess the results achieved by the NEP towards its main objective and principles and across its nine priority areas; assessing final performance and delivery as per the foreseen targets and indicators of achievement as stipulated in the Implementation and M&E Plans, and with respect to the particular political and economic developments, opportunities and constraints experienced in Namibia over the implementation period.

ii. To identify and rigorously analyse any potential shortcomings in the implementation, with the aim to examine and uncovering the main reasons and contributing factors that may have caused any underperformance.

iii. To provide strategic, operational and policy recommendations and lessons learned with a view to facilitating more effective and impactful public employment policies, programmes or initiatives in the future.

Scope:

The independent evaluation will cover all the objectives, principles and priority areas/strategies of Nambia’s Second National Employment Policy, with particular attention to both the policy’s development process and its implementation. The evaluation will assess all key outputs, results, achievements and outcomes that were produced and have been achieved by all relevant stakeholders since the adoption of the NEP.

In particular, the evaluation will make recommendations regarding:

• Overall progress made towards achieving the NEP objectives and targets
• Guide the Government of Namibia on the performance of the NEP (including areas of success and/or challenges) and provide lessons learned for future employment policies/programmes/initiatives of a similar nature
• Any potential shortcomings in NEP implementation and highlight them clearly together with any identified causes for such underperformance
• Internal and external factors that influenced NEP implementation and delivery
• The extent of coordination, collaboration, buy-in, support and participation among government stakeholders, workers and employers organisations, as well as any other implementing partners or relevant stakeholders.
• Relevance of the NEP within national development priorities/frameworks and evolving context post-NDP4 (including NDP5 and Harambee Prosperity Plan), both on paper and as perceived by the tripartite stakeholders.
• Synergies with other relevant policies, programmes and activities (public and private), as well as any other relevant initiatives by Namibian constituents (tripartite).
• Results based management, measurement and impact assessment systems
• Systems for Risk analysis, assessment and monitoring/evaluation
• Other specific recommendations to assess performance and the delivery of results for this and any similar future policies.

Evaluation users:

The primary users of the evaluation are the tripartite Namibian constituents, namely the Government of Namibia, as well as workers and employers organisations, ILO as the main sponsor of the NEP development process, as well as other relevant stakeholders from civil society, academia and the international community.

3. Evaluation criteria and questions

The evaluation will cover the following evaluation criteria (in line with ILO evaluation policy guidelines^[2]):

A. Relevance and strategic fit,

B. Effectiveness of implementation and management arrangements,

C. Efficiency of resource use and policy design/implementation,

D. Impact orientation by the policy design, and impacts achieved vis-à-vis defined objectives and outcomes

E. Sustainability and continuation of policy-induced activities and impact beyond the policy’s lifespan.

The evaluation shall follow a human-rights-based approach by promoting and protecting human rights. Including the HR perspective in evaluation means (i) addressing the process to people, (ii) setting tools and approaches appropriate for collecting data from them; (iii) set-up processes of broader involvement of stakeholders, and (iv) enhance access of the evaluation results to all stakeholders.

Furthermore, the evaluation must be conducted with gender equality as a mainstreamed approach and concern. This implies (i) applying gender analysis by involving both men and women in consultation and evaluation’s analysis, (ii) inclusion of data disaggregated by sex and gender in the analysis and justification of project documents; (iii) the formulation of gender-sensitive strategies and objectives and gender-specific indicators; (iv) inclusion of qualitative methods and use of mix of methodologies, (v) forming a gender-balanced team, and (vi) assessing outcomes to improve lives of women and men. Thus, analysis of gender-related concerns will be based on the ILO Guidelines on Considering Gender in Monitoring and Evaluation of Projects (September, 2007). National Gender Policy 2010-2020 and Gender Mainstreaming should be able to guide the study as catalysing women’s participation in productive resource utilization and employment creation.

In line with a results-based approach, the evaluation will focus on identifying and analysing results through addressing key questions related to the evaluation criteria and the achievement of the outcomes/objectives/targets as stipulated in the NEP, particularly its Implementation and M&E Plans.

Key Evaluation Questions:

The evaluators shall examine the following key issues:A. Relevance and strategic fit

1. Has the NEP taken into account the needs and priorities of tripartite stakeholders and beneficiaries in Namibia?
2. In hindsight, was the NEP design realistic and purposeful towards achieving its objectives? Was the NEP design logical? B. Effectiveness of NEP implementation and management arrangements
3. To what extent has each of the expected nine priority areas and their related outputs been achieved? Please suitably disaggregate this analysis by gender, age, geographic area, and sector (where applicable).
4. What, if any, adverse effects resulting from the NEP (on beneficiaries, affected communities, institutions, or other) have been identified or perceived?
5. Has the NEP Implementation Framework been effective in facilitating or enabling the achievement of the NEP goals?
6. To what extent has Namibia’s political economy promoted or hindered an effective implementation of the NEP? If possible, identify particular points in time, actors and turn of events that have had an impact on the NEP’s effectiveness from the point of development till the end of the implementation phase.

C. Efficiency

1. How efficiently have resources (human resources, time, expertise, funds etc.) been allocated and used to achieve the NEP goals?

2. To what extent have the efforts and resource allocation between implementing ministries been coordinated towards achievement of the NEP’s objectives and targets?

3. Have the NEP’s activities/operations been implemented in time as defined by the implementation plan?

D. Impact orientation and impacts achieved vis-à-vis defined objectives and outcomes 10. Has the NEP actively and successfully contributed to the creation of employment in Namibia?

1. Has the NEP contributed to achieving the proposed objectives and outputs.
   12 Have the target indicators across the various objectives and outputs been effectively measured and achieved?
2. To what extent can employment created in Namibia from 2013 to 2017 be attributed to the activities of the NEP?
3. Has the NEP contributed to a significant change in practices, perceptions, governance or enabling environment for employment creation in the country?

E. Sustainability 15. Has an effective coordination body, implementation, and monitoring system been established and implemented?

1. Assess whether NEP outcomes have been achieved in a sustainable manner that enable continuing benefits beyond the NEP’s lifespan?
2. Are any jobs created through the NEP likely to continue to exist and be improved after the NEP’s expiry?
3. Has an effective and realistic NEP review mechanism been developed and implemented?
4. To what extent will national institutions and implementing partners be likely to continue NEP activities/initiatives or carry forward its results without external funding or support?

5. Methodology

The evaluation will take a mixed methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative research methods. Inter alia, it will incorporate a desk review and field visits to all institutions and stakeholders that have been involved in the development and implementation of the NEP in Namibia. Further consultation will be held with responsible multilateral and donor agencies (such as ILO and its UN sister agencies, World Bank, GIZ, KfW, among others), private sector and civil society representatives, academia and research institutions (incl LARRI), as well as any other relevant implementing partners, beneficiaries and stakeholders.

The independent evaluation team will review inputs by all stakeholders, and it will seek to apply a variety of evaluation techniques – desk review, statistical analysis of available data, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, field visits, informed judgments, and scoring, ranking or other rating techniques.

The evaluation team leader will be responsible for completing the draft evaluation report, to be submitted to the ILO evaluation manager, and subsequently shared with all relevant stakeholders for feedback. Comments will be requested by the evaluation team leader within a specified timeframe (not more than 12 working days). The conclusions and recommendations of the evaluation team will be presented in a stakeholder validation workshop to be conducted in Windhoek upon completion of the fieldwork. The participants will be determined by national constituents in coordination with the ILO evaluation manager. Following the feedback provided during the validation workshop, the evaluation team will be expected to finalise the report and submit to the evaluation manager without unreasonable delay (maximum 10 working days).

The various methodological elements of the evaluation are each discussed below:

Desk review:

The evaluators will carry out an initial desk review of all relevant public policy and legal documents, academic literature, as well as available secondary statistics and data, as well as any relevant data provided by NEP implementers. The desk review will suggest a number of initial findings that in turn may point to additional or fine-tuned evaluation questions, to be reflected in an evaluation matrix to be included as part of the inception report. This will guide the final evaluation instruments which should be finalized in consultation with the evaluation manager.

Interviews with tripartite constituents and stakeholders:

The evaluation team will undertake group and/or individual discussions with all relevant stakeholders in Namibia, primarily but not exclusively in Windhoek. Interviews should also be held with a sample of relevant officials at regional/constituency level outside Windhoek. The evaluation team will also interview key staff of the relevant ILO offices in Harare, Pretoria and Geneva (using modern communication technology where possible). An indicative list of persons to be interviewed will be developed by the ILO country office in Harare in close collaboration with the Ministry of Labour Industrial Relation and Employment Creation (MLIREC) and social partners.

Stakeholder Validation Workshop:

Additionally, a stakeholder workshop will take place in June 2019. This meeting will be conducted by the Evaluation Team to provide feedback on initial evaluation results. It will bring together a wide range of stakeholders. The agenda of the meeting and list of participants will be determined by national constituents in coordination with the ILO evaluation manager. Logistical support will be provided by the project team.

The stakeholder workshop will be used to present the major preliminary findings and emerging issues, solicit recommendations, and obtain clarification or additional information from stakeholders, including those not interviewed earlier. The presentation will concentrate on good practices identified at the time of the evaluation, lessons learned and remaining gaps as identified by all the stakeholders.

6. Expected Outputs/ Deliverables1. Inception report (with detailed work plan, data collection instruments, definition of responsibilities of evaluation team members)

1. A concise draft Evaluation Report (maximum 35 pages without annexes) as per the following proposed structure:

2. Cover page with key project and evaluation data

3. Executive Summary

4. Acronyms

5. Description of the NEP

6. Purpose, scope and clients of the evaluation

7. Methodology

8. Clearly identified findings for each criterion/evaluation question

9. Conclusions

10. Recommendations

11. Lessons learned and good practices

12. Annexes: TOR, NEP Implementation plan: Level of completion of key activities, NEP M&E Plan: Level of achievement of targets, List of Meetings and Interviews, Any other relevant documents3. Participation, presentation of findings and rapporteur duties at a stakeholder validation workshop

13. A concise final draft Evaluation Report in line with the above requirements

14. Evaluation Summary, Lessons learned and best practices (where applicable using existing ILO templates).

All draft and final outputs, including supporting documents, analytical reports and raw data should be provided to the ILO evaluation manager in electronic version compatible with Word for Windows.

The first draft of the report will be circulated to ILO for an initial review, which serves to identify potentially sensitive information and/or inaccuracies in the report. Comments from stakeholders will be consolidated and incorporated into the final report as appropriate, and the Lead Evaluator will provide a response to the evaluation manager, in the form of a comment matrix, including explanations as to how comments were addressed or why any comments might not have been incorporated. It is expected that all comments and stakeholder feedback will be duly addressed in some form.

While the substantive content of the findings, conclusions, and recommendations of the report shall be determined by the Evaluation Team, the report is subject to final approval by ILO and Namibian tripartite constituents in terms of whether or not the report meets the conditions of the TOR. All reports, including drafts, will be written in English.

7. Management arrangements, work plan & time frame

Composition evaluation team:

This is an independent external evaluation, in which the grantee (ILO) will appoint an evaluation manager and the members of the Evaluation Team, which ideally will include national expertise.

The evaluation team will consist of one lead evaluation consultant (team leader) and one supporting evaluation consultant (both yet to be identified). The consultants will work together to collect the data and draft the initial report. The team leader will be responsible for resolving any outstanding disagreements that may arise between the evaluators as well as working closely with the ILO evaluation manager as needed to produce and submit one evaluation report in accordance with the deliverable schedule and contract specifications. The consultants will be highly qualified senior evaluation specialists with extensive experience in policy evaluations and also the subject matter in question: employment creation and policies. The evaluation team, in consultation with the ILO evaluation manager and national constituents, will agree on the distribution of work and schedule for the evaluation and stakeholders to consult.

The Ministry of Labour, Industrial Relation and Employment Creation, as the chair of the employment coordination committee, will be the chief national institution responsible for facilitating the evaluation process, including the data collection and validation phase.

Reporting lines and evaluation manager:

The evaluation team will report to the Director of the ILO Country Office for Zimbabwe and Namibia, based in Harare, Ms Hopolang Phororo (phororo@ilo.org). They will be technical backstopped by the responsible employment specialist, Mr Bernd Mueller (ILO DWT/CO Pretoria, mueller@ilo.org). Mr Mueller will serve as evaluation manager for this evaluation and thus will be the main point of contact for the evaluation team. Logistical and administrative support will be provided by the ILO Office in Harare, and coordinated by Mr Adolphus Chinomwe (chinomwe@ilo.org).

Ethical Considerations and Confidentiality:

The evaluation mission will observe utmost confidentiality related to sensitive information and feedback elicited during the individual and group interviews. Interview partners must be assured of full anonymity and confidentiality of their responses at the beginning of the interview. They must be provided with sufficient space to ask any questions they may have, and must be provided with answers to their satisfaction before commencing the interview.

Work plan & Time Frame:

The total duration of the evaluation process (excluding preparation and finalisation) is estimated to be 40 working days over period from 15 April – 31 August 2019. The field visits and data collection shall not commence before 1 May 2019. The independent consultants will spend at least 12 working days in Namibia.

Evaluation Phases:

The evaluation is foreseen to be undertaken in the following main phases and time period aiming for submission of the final evaluation report to the donor no later than 7 September 2015.

For this independent evaluation, the final report and submission procedure will be followed:

• The evaluation team leader will submit a draft evaluation report to the evaluation manager.
• ILO Evaluation Manager will carry out a review to ensure quality and completeness of report and highlight any issue to be addressed by the evaluators if needed.
• The evaluation manager will then forward a copy to all key stakeholders, for comment and factual correction. A validation stakeholder workshop will be held to collate all comments and provide a suitable forum for all feedback to be voiced. The evaluation team leader will act as main rapporteur at the workshop.
• The evaluation manager will consolidate the comments and send these to the evaluation team.
• The evaluation team leader will finalize the report incorporating any comments deemed appropriate and providing a comment matrix explaining how the comments were addressed and why any comments might not have been incorporated.
• The evaluation team leader will submit the final report and comment matrix to the ILO evaluation manager.
• The ILO evaluation manager will forward the evaluation report and comment matrix to all stakeholders for review. If questions or concerns remain about how comments were or were not addressed, the Evaluation Manager may request further explanation or response from the Evaluation Team Leader.
• Once a final report has been arrived at, this will be sent for final editing and formatting, and afterwards publicly released and shared with all relevant stakeholders.

[1] In 2017 Namibia was ranked second in Africa as Overall Governance Ibrahim Index and 51/180 (worldwide) as per Corruption Perceptions Index.

[2] ILO policy guidelines for results-based evaluation: Principles, rationale, planning and managing for evaluations, 2012

Interested candidates may submit their technical and financial proposal addressed to the Director, ILO Country Office for Zimbabwe and Namibia (CO-Harare) at Block 8 Arundel Office Park, Norfolk Road, Mt. Pleasant, Harare: P.O. Box 210, Harare, Zimbabwe Or by email to harare@ilo.org cc: chinomwe@ilo.org. The financial proposal MUST be submitted separately to mushandu@ilo.org cc: hunidzarira@ilo.org.

Your application should reach the Office at the latest by close of business, 31 March 2019.
Only short-listed candidates whose applications correspond to the set criteria will be contacted for an interview.

Any form of canvassing, soliciting or influencing will be treated as disqualification.